NEW YORK: A key UN report has highlighted that Pakistan, with its current population exceeding 245 million, is among the nations expected to see significant population growth through 2054, potentially peaking later in the century.
The UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report projects Pakistan’s population to reach its zenith in 2092, hitting 404.68 million. The report also forecasts that by 2048, Pakistan’s population will surpass that of Indonesia, reaching 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan experienced an average annual population growth rate of 2.40 per cent, adding about 5.28 million people each year and pushing the population past 220 million. This rapid growth is attributed to a high birth rate of 22 births per 1,000 people and low use of birth control among women.
The population surge is expected to strain Pakistan’s water and sanitation systems, create unemployment, and overwhelm health and education infrastructures. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan’s population has grown substantially, partly due to internal migration for family and business opportunities. The report notes that Pakistan’s growth rate is about 2.1 percent higher than other countries in the region.
If this growth trend continues, Pakistan’s population could double from its 2001 level within 35 years. Although the current growth rate is near 2 per cent, it is expected to decline to less than 1 per cent by 2050, when the population is projected to exceed 300 million.
Globally, the population reached nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before slightly declining.
However, global population changes are uneven, with rapid growth in some areas and rapid aging in others, making reliable data crucial. The UN Sexual and Reproductive Health Agency (UNFPA) stressed the importance of addressing the needs of marginalized populations.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the importance of accurate population data, stating, “Our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread.” He noted that effective data systems are essential for accelerating progress for all.
The 28th edition of World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100. The WPP is crucial for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
While global fertility rates are dropping, with women having one child fewer on average than in 1990, nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility” rates of fewer than 1.4 live births per woman.
By 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, with a projected decline of 14 percent over the next thirty years.
The average age of the global population is increasing, with the number of people aged 65 or older expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a significant increase from 17 percent in 1995.
While high-income countries experience slow growth or population decline, rapid population growth is projected in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This growth will increase demand for resources and exacerbate environmental impacts, especially in regions heavily affected by climate change.
In countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, populations are also expected to increase through 2054, potentially peaking in the second half of the century.
Secretary-General Guterres emphasized that women’s sexual and reproductive health and rights are crucial for sustainable development. Early pregnancies remain a challenge in low-income countries, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under 18 in 2024, including 340,000 children under 15. Investing in education and delaying marriage and childbearing can improve health outcomes and reduce the investments needed for sustainable development.