LONDON – New research forecasts a rise in global life expectancy over the next three decades, with significant gains anticipated in Africa. However, rising obesity and other health factors are expected to increase the burden of poor health.
Life Expectancy Predictions
According to the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, published in The Lancet, life expectancy is projected to increase by nearly five years by 2050. Despite this positive outlook, conditions like obesity and high blood pressure are expected to result in more years lived in poor health.
“Future trends may differ from past trends due to factors like climate change, increasing obesity, and addiction,” stated Liane Ong, lead research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which led the study.
Longer Lifespans Worldwide
The study predicts that life expectancy will rise from 71.1 years to 76 years for men and from 76.2 years to 80.5 years for women. Countries with currently lower life expectancies are expected to see the largest improvements.
“This indicates that while health inequalities between high and low-income regions will persist, the gaps are shrinking, with the most significant increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa,” said IHME director Dr. Chris Murray.
Improvements in Public Health
Researchers attribute this trend to public health measures that have improved survival rates from diseases such as heart disease, COVID-19, and various communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases.
Obesity’s Impact on Health Outcomes
The study also found a 49.4 percent increase since 2000 in years lost due to metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure, high blood sugar, and high body mass index (BMI). Air pollution, smoking, and low birth weight were also significant contributors to health loss and early death.
“There is immense opportunity to influence the future of global health by addressing rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high BMI, and high blood pressure,” Murray said.
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